CREA's April report shows national home sales down 4% YoY and the HPI down 4.2% — the 17th consecutive month of declines. Ontario is one of three provinces dragging the national average lower.

Last updated 2026-05-14. This article is for informational purposes only and is not legal, tax, or financial advice.

17 straight months of price declines — and Ontario is at the heart of why

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released its April 2026 national report this week, and the headline number is hard to soften: the MLS Home Price Index fell 4.2% year-over-year in April — the 17th consecutive month of price declines on a YoY basis (CBC News, May 14, 2026).

The national headline numbers

April home sales: 42,927 — down 4% YoY
Sales (seasonally adjusted MoM): up 0.7% from March
National average sale price (non-seasonally adjusted): $695,412 — up 2.2% YoY
MLS HPI (typical home benchmark): down 0.1% MoM, down 4.2% YoY
New listings: up 4.1% MoM — normal spring seasonality
Active listings: 187,647 — up 2.2% YoY, but still 6.1% below long-term average

The regional split — and Ontario's role

Three provinces are dragging the national average lower: British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario. Ontario's home price in April fell roughly 6.3% YoY and is now down 13% from 2023 levels (CBC). That's a meaningful drag because Ontario alone accounts for a large share of national sales volume.

BMO chief economist Doug Porter summarized the picture this way: "The key takeaway is that while significant regional disparities exist, much of the country is experiencing generally sluggish activity."

CREA's revised 2026 forecast

CREA has already cut its 2026 outlook this year. The association now projects:

National sales growth in 2026: roughly +1% (down from a January forecast of +5.1%)
National average price growth in 2026: +1.5% to about $688,955 — roughly $10,000 below the January forecast

The revision largely reflects the ripple effects of oil-price volatility on mortgage rates and a slower-than-hoped return of buyer confidence.

One positive signal in the data

The gap between asking prices and final selling prices narrowed in April. Shaun Cathcart, CREA's senior economist, suggested this could be an early invigorator of the market — sellers are starting to price closer to reality, which historically has preceded transaction volumes picking up.

What this means for Ontario homeowners

If you bought in 2021–2022 at peak prices and need to sell in 2026, you're likely looking at a real loss, especially on condos and townhomes. If you bought before 2020, you're still significantly ahead and have flexibility. For homeowners just looking at paper wealth: the YoY price decline is real but the long-term trend (10+ years) for Ontario housing remains strongly positive — short-term volatility doesn't change the fundamentals of a supply-constrained, immigration-supported market once the cycle turns.

What this means for Ontario buyers

17 months of declines does not mean another 17 are coming. Markets bottom when sentiment is worst, supply tightens, and pricing realism returns — and the April data points to early signs of all three. Don't try to time the absolute bottom; focus on whether the specific home, in the specific neighbourhood, at the specific price, works for your 7–10 year plan.