CMHC's April data shows Toronto housing starts rising 34% YoY on multi-unit projects, even as Q1 saw zero new condo launches. The disconnect tells you a lot about how the supply pipeline is bifurcating.

Last updated 2026-05-16. This article is for informational purposes only and is not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Toronto starts +34% YoY in April — encouraging headline, complicated reality

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released April 2026 housing starts data on May 15, and the Toronto number stood out: actual housing starts in Toronto rose 34% year-over-year, driven by higher multi-unit starts (CMHC monthly housing starts, April 2026).

The headline numbers

National housing starts trend (6-month MA, SAAR): 256,777 units — up 3.2%
April national starts (centres ≥10,000 population): 21,805 — down 1% YoY
Toronto starts: +34% YoY (multi-unit driven)
Montréal starts: +21% YoY (multi-unit driven)
Vancouver starts: -30% YoY (lower multi-unit and single-detached)
Standalone SAAR (April): 279,317 units — up 17% from March's 239,747

Why the +34% Toronto number can mislead

Three nuances matter here. First, monthly start numbers are extremely volatile — a single large multi-unit project starting construction can swing a city's monthly total by 20-40%. CMHC explicitly cautions against reading too much into one month. Second, "starts" measure projects that were sold and financed months or years ago — the units starting in April 2026 were largely pre-sold in 2022-2024 when the market was very different. Third, Urbanation's Q1 report confirmed that only one major project drove the bulk of Q1 starts, and zero new projects launched in the GTHA in Q1 2026 — which means the supply pipeline filling 2028–2030 is, right now, nearly empty.

The Ontario-wide picture from TD Economics

TD Economics noted that urban starts rose in 6 of 10 provinces in April, with Ontario leading the way at +30,300 starts to 81,800 units, followed by BC (+26,800 to 55,200) and the Prairies (+3,400 to 53,400) (TD Economics — Canadian Housing Starts, April 2026). That's encouraging for the short-term completion calendar — units starting today will be completing in 2028–2030 — but does nothing to address the pipeline-launch problem identified by Urbanation.

What CMHC's methodology caveat means for the data

CMHC has stated it is conducting a methodology review of the unabsorbed inventory data series in the Ontario context, and is asking users to interpret that data with caution. The implication: official numbers on completed-but-unsold units in Ontario may not fully capture the depth of the current condo inventory overhang. Real-world inventory at the unit level is likely worse than the headline data suggests.

What this means for the next 24–36 months

The supply pipeline now looks like a barbell. On the near end (2026–2027), completions remain elevated as projects sold in 2021–2023 finish. On the far end (2028–2030), the pipeline is unusually thin because of the Q1 2026 launch freeze. If demand normalizes by 2027–2028 — driven by population growth and any easing in affordability — Ontario could find itself short on housing again right when the pipeline runs dry. That's the structural argument for the price floor being closer than the headlines suggest.