GTA New Home Sales Still 76% Below Normal as HST Rebate Launches Tomorrow

New Home Sales Hit Rock Bottom -- Just in Time for the Rebate

The timing couldn't be more dramatic. The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) released its February 2026 numbers yesterday, and they paint a picture of a new-home market that's barely functioning. Just 531 new homes sold across the GTA last month -- 76% below the 10-year average of 2,251 units.

And tomorrow, April 1, Ontario's $130,000 HST rebate on new homes kicks in.

The question on everyone's mind: is this the catalyst that finally breaks the logjam?

The February Numbers

BILD's data, sourced from Altus Group, shows a market that's improved marginally from 2025's record lows but remains deeply depressed:

Metric	February 2026	vs Feb 2025	vs 10-Year Average
Total new home sales	531	+16%	-76%
Condo apartment sales	171	-2%	-88%
Single-family sales	360	+27%	-57%
Total remaining inventory	20,291 units	Stable month-over-month	--
Months of supply	27 months	Highest on record	--

"New home sales in February 2026 continued to fall well short of historic norms with only a modest increase from the previous year's record low for the month," said Edward Jegg, Research Manager at Altus Group.

The condo apartment segment is the weakest link. Just 171 condo units sold -- down 2% year-over-year and a staggering 88% below the decade average. The 14,291 unsold condo units in inventory represent roughly 7 years of supply at current sales rates.

Pricing Signals: A Floor or More Room to Fall?

BILD's benchmark pricing data suggests prices may be stabilizing, at least for new construction:

Property Type	Benchmark Price (Feb 2026)	12-Month Change
New condo apartments	$1,022,063	"Apparent price floor"
New single-family homes	$1,423,219	-7.4%

That condo benchmark holding steady is notable. BILD has described $1.02 million as an "apparent price floor" for two months running. Whether that floor holds once the HST rebate effectively reduces buyer costs by up to $130,000 is the key question -- developers could maintain list prices while buyers pay significantly less out of pocket.

The HST Rebate: Tomorrow Changes the Math

Starting April 1, the full 13% HST is eliminated on qualifying new homes priced up to $1 million. That's a maximum saving of $130,000, maintained as a flat reduction for homes up to $1.5 million and declining for homes up to $1.85 million.

BILD's Chief Operating Officer Justin Sherwood didn't mince words: "With the temporary harmonized sales tax cut announced last week by the Ontario and federal government for all new home buyers, now is truly the best time in a decade for those looking to buy a new home to get into the market."

He pointed to three converging factors: the HST elimination, prices that have moderated over 20% since 2022, and "unparalleled product choice due to high inventory level."

What the Industry Expects

The Ontario government's budget projects home resales growing 9.1% in 2026, while BILD expects "increased activity in balance of the year" specifically because of the tax cut. But those expectations clash with TD Economics' forecast of a 3.2% decline in Ontario transactions.

The reality will likely fall somewhere in between. The HST rebate is powerful enough to pull some fence-sitters into the market, particularly for single-family new builds where the savings are most impactful. But the condo segment -- with 14,291 unsold units and benchmark prices still above $1 million -- faces deeper structural challenges that a one-year tax break can't fully solve.

CMHC's outlook adds context: Ontario housing starts are projected to fall to near two-decade lows in 2026, driven by "very low condominium pre-construction sales." Even with the HST incentive, developers need to reach 50-70% presale thresholds before they can secure financing for new projects. With current absorption rates, that's a tall order.

What Buyers Should Know Right Now

If you've been waiting to buy a new home in the GTA, the window that opens tomorrow is genuinely significant:

• HST savings of up to $130,000 on homes under $1 million
• 27 months of new-home inventory to choose from
• Single-family benchmark prices down 7.4% year-over-year
• Mortgage rates at multi-year lows (5-year variable at 3.35%)
• 30-year amortization available for first-time buyers

The rebate window runs until March 31, 2027. Purchase agreements must be signed within that window, but construction timelines extend to 2031 for primary residences. Don't rush, but don't wait too long either -- if the rebate actually works as intended and sales pick up, inventory could tighten and developer pricing flexibility could diminish.

April 1 isn't just a date change. For Ontario's battered new-home market, it's the biggest test of buyer confidence in four years.