Ontario's average home price hit $811,868 in March 2026, down 4.8% year-over-year but up 1.2% from February — a market that is stabilizing seasonally without yet showing real recovery.

Last updated 2026-04-20. This article is for informational purposes only and is not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Ontario housing in March: prices down 4.8% YoY but the floor may be near

Ontario's housing market entered spring 2026 with mixed signals. The province's average home price climbed to $811,868 in March, up 1.2% from February but still down 4.8% versus March 2025 (WOWA Ontario Housing Market Report, updated April 17, 2026). Sales jumped 32% month-over-month to 12,424 transactions — a seasonal rebound — but were essentially flat year-over-year, down just 0.2%.

The big-picture March numbers

Ontario average price: $811,868 — down 4.8% YoY, up 1.2% MoM
Sales volume: 12,424 — down 0.2% YoY, up 32% MoM (seasonal)
Dollar volume of sales: $10.1 billion — down 5.0% YoY, up over 30% MoM
Active inventory: 49% above the 10-year March average

City-by-city YoY price changes (March 2026)

Greater Toronto Area: $1,017,796 (down 6.9% YoY, up 0.9% MoM)
City of Toronto: $1,022,874 (down 7.9% YoY)
Mississauga: $966,615 (down 7.6% YoY)
Brampton: $892,085 (down 6.5% YoY)
Markham: down 4.8% YoY
Vaughan: down 6.0% YoY
Hamilton: $721,075 (down 8.6% YoY)
Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge: $733,258 (down 5.0% YoY)
London: $627,112 (down 2.5% YoY)
Ottawa: $692,584 (up 1.0% YoY — Ontario's outlier)

What this tells us about the spring market

Three patterns emerge from the March data. First, Ontario's price decline is being driven almost entirely by the GTA and Hamilton; markets outside the immediate Toronto orbit are correcting less, and Northern Ontario actually posted 2.4% YoY price growth. Second, the 49% inventory overhang versus the 10-year average means buyers continue to hold meaningful negotiating power even as monthly numbers improve. Third, despite multiple Bank of Canada rate cuts between June 2024 and October 2025, Ontario's market has not responded the way other provinces have — affordability fatigue is structural, not just cyclical.

Ottawa as the counter-example

Ottawa's 1.0% YoY price gain is a useful contrast. The capital region has a more stable government-employment base, less exposure to investor-driven pre-construction supply, and average prices roughly $300,000 lower than the GTA. The lesson for Ontario buyers and sellers: the "Ontario housing market" headline number disguises very different stories in very different submarkets.

The takeaway for buyers and sellers

For buyers, March confirms that the spring 2026 window remains a buyer's market in the GTA with prices still ~5% below year-ago levels and inventory well above average. For sellers, the modest month-over-month price recovery (+0.9% in the GTA) suggests pricing realistically rather than chasing 2022 peaks remains essential.