Canada's Inflation Edges Up to 3.1% in September on Gasoline — Ontario at 2.5%, Shelter Up Just 1.8%

Statistics Canada's September 2026 Consumer Price Index, released October 19, shows headline inflation edging up to 3.1% year over year from 3.0% in August. Almost all of that came from the gas pump: gasoline prices were up 27.8% from a year earlier, after 22.8% in August. Strip gasoline out and the CPI rose just 2.2%, down from 2.4% the month before.

For GTA buyers, owners and renters, the more useful number sits underneath the headline. Shelter costs rose only 1.8% year over year, the mortgage interest cost index was still slightly lower than a year ago, and Ontario's all-items CPI came in at 2.5%, below the national rate for another month.

Month over month, the CPI rose 0.1% (not seasonally adjusted) and 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The national numbers

• All-items CPI: +3.1% year over year (August: +3.0%)
• CPI excluding gasoline: +2.2% (August: +2.4%)
• CPI excluding food and energy: +2.1%
• Energy: +19.0% (August: +15.4%)
• Gasoline: +27.8% year over year, +6.1% month over month
• Food purchased from stores: +1.7% (August: +2.8%), the smallest yearly increase since May 2024
• Shelter: +1.8% (August: +1.5%)
• Transportation: +8.4%

StatCan says crude oil reached its highest level since May amid ongoing uncertainty about the wars in the Middle East, pushing up gasoline and fuel oil. The switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline took some of the edge off. Smaller year-over-year increases for travel tours and groceries kept the headline from rising further.

Core inflation is still soft

The Bank of Canada's preferred core measures moved down, not up, in September:

• CPI-trim: 1.8% (August: 1.9%)
• CPI-median: 1.9% (August: 2.0%)
• CPI-common: 2.4% (August: 2.6%)

Two of the three are now below the Bank's 2% target. That's the main tension in this report: the headline number is above 3%, at the top of the Bank's 1% to 3% control range, but it is being driven by energy, while broader price pressure keeps easing.

Shelter: what homeowners and renters are actually paying

Shelter rose 1.8% year over year, up from 1.5% in August. StatCan pins the acceleration on three things: fuel oil and other fuels (+57.8%), homeowners' home and mortgage insurance (+4.9%), and homeowners' maintenance and repairs (+1.2%). Those are cost-of-owning pressures, not house-price pressures.

• Rent: +2.8% year over year, matching August, and +0.5% on the month. Rent was the second-largest upward contributor to the 12-month change, behind gasoline.
• Mortgage interest cost index: −0.2% year over year, the same pace as August
• Homeowners' replacement cost: −1.9%, the largest downward contributor to the 12-month change
• Property taxes and other special charges: +5.6%, one of the five main upward contributors
• Natural gas: −6.8%

The replacement cost index is tied to new-home prices excluding land, so a 1.9% decline fits with the year-over-year drops StatCan has been reporting in its New Housing Price Index. And with the mortgage interest cost index slightly below last year's level, the interest households in the CPI basket pay on their mortgages is no longer climbing.

Ontario: 2.5%, still below the national rate

Ontario's all-items CPI rose 2.5% year over year in September (index 170.3), up from 2.4% in August, and 0.2% on the month. That puts Ontario below the national 3.1% and well below Atlantic Canada, where fuel oil is more widely used: Prince Edward Island was at 5.7%, Nova Scotia 5.6%, New Brunswick 5.0%, and Newfoundland and Labrador 4.7%. Quebec matched the national rate at 3.1%, Alberta was at 3.6%, and British Columbia at 3.0%.

Ontario was one of five provinces where inflation picked up in September. Separately, Ontario tuition fees rose 2.1%, the largest increase since 2018, as the province ended its tuition freeze.

What it means for GTA buyers, sellers and agents

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, and its next scheduled decision, with a new Monetary Policy Report, is October 28. This is the last CPI print before that call, and it gives both sides of the argument something to point to. A 3.1% headline, driven by an energy shock, is the kind of number that keeps talk of a hike alive. Core measures at 1.8% to 1.9% and grocery inflation at its lowest since May 2024 are the kind of numbers that argue against one.

For GTA buyers, the practical read is that this report doesn't settle the rate question, so fixed-rate pricing will keep following bond markets more than any single CPI print. For owners, the shelter numbers say the pressure right now is in insurance, property taxes, maintenance and heating fuel rather than the mortgage itself. For renters and landlords, national CPI rent is holding at 2.8% year over year. That measures what tenants in the basket are paying, which is a different thing from the asking rents on new listings that have been falling in Toronto.

Statistics Canada will release the October CPI on Monday, November 16.

Sources

• Statistics Canada — The Daily: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (released October 19, 2026), including Table 1 (major components), Table 2 (provinces), Table 4 (Bank of Canada core measures) and Table 5 (main contributors); Table 18-10-0004-01
• Statistics Canada — The Daily: Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (released September 14, 2026), for Ontario's August 2.4% comparison
• Bank of Canada — Policy rate announcement, September 2, 2026

Compiled by the Real Estate HQ editorial desk from primary data releases (sources linked above) and reviewed for accuracy. Figures are as reported on the release date.