CMHC August 2026: National Starts Flat on SAAR as Ontario Trend Slides 7%

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation released August 2026 housing starts and construction data on September 16, and the national picture is softer on trend than the flat monthly SAAR suggests. The six-month trend measure fell 1.3% to 244,149 units, while the total monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for all areas held essentially flat at 229,046 units versus 229,360 in July.

For Ontario and GTA readers, the provincial and Toronto detail is sharper: Ontario's six-month starts trend dropped 7%, Toronto's trend was flat, and Toronto's actual August starts in centres of 10,000+ plunged 45% year over year even as completions in the CMA more than doubled month over month.

National: trend down, monthly SAAR flat

CMHC's preferred trend measure — a six-month moving average of the SAAR of total housing starts for all areas — fell from roughly 247,400 units in July to 244,149 in August (−1.3%). Actual monthly starts in centres with a population of 10,000 or more came in at 17,691 units, down 2% from 18,112 in August 2025. Year-to-date starts in those centres total 149,542, down 4% from the same period in 2025.

The standalone monthly SAAR for all areas was effectively unchanged: 229,046 in August versus 229,360 in July. Rural starts SAAR was estimated at 11,224 units.

Units under construction in centres of 50,000+ were flat at 371,658 (−0.4% month over month). Completions fell to 17,550 (−11.2% versus July). Units with approved building permits but not yet started edged up to 142,423 (+0.7%).

“Housing starts continued to trend slightly down in August, as modest gains in Quebec and Alberta only partially offset the decline in other provinces, most notably, Ontario,” said Kevin Hughes, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC. “The latest results are consistent with CMHC's Housing Market Outlook. While the current pace of starts is elevated compared to recent years, we expect the downward trend to continue as construction activity moderates in the coming months especially towards the end of the year.”

Ontario: multi-unit weakness drives a 7% trend drop

On the six-month trend for centres of 10,000+, Ontario total starts fell from 63,370 in July to 58,933 in August (−7%). Single-detached trend rose 3% to 9,882, but “all others” (largely multi-unit) dropped 9% to 49,051 — that multi-unit slide is the provincial story.

On an actual (not seasonally adjusted) basis for August alone, Ontario recorded 3,882 starts in centres of 10,000+, down 22% from 4,982 in August 2025. Multi-unit starts were 2,810 (−30% year over year), while single-detached rose to 1,072 (+9%).

In Ontario centres of 50,000+, units under construction fell to 149,314 (−1.6% month over month), while completions jumped to 5,901 (+46.2%). Approved units awaiting start rose to 32,006 (+3.8%) — so the pipeline of permitted-but-not-started projects is still building even as the starts trend softens.

Toronto CMA: trend flat, August actuals down hard, completions spike

Among Canada's three biggest CMAs, CMHC says Montreal's six-month trend rose 6% and Vancouver's rose 6%, while Toronto's trend was flat — single-detached and multi-unit trends both unchanged. Toronto's six-month total trend printed at 25,131 in August versus 25,112 in July.

The calendar-month Toronto numbers are much weaker. Actual August starts in the Toronto CMA were 1,192, down 45% from 2,156 in August 2025. Single-detached fell to 220 (−31% year over year) and multi-unit to 972 (−47%).

Year-to-date through August, Toronto CMA starts total 15,957, down 3% from 16,451 in the same period of 2025 — a milder hit than the August YoY print alone implies, but still negative.

On the construction stock side, Toronto units under construction eased to 91,584 (−1.3% month over month), while completions surged to 2,362 (+134.1% versus July). Approved units awaiting start rose to 19,516 (+9.2%). That mix — soft new starts, rising completions, and a larger permitted backlog — is the GTA supply read buyers and agents should sit with heading into fall.

What it means for Ontario buyers, sellers, and agents

Nationally, August is not a collapse: monthly SAAR is flat and the trend is only modestly lower. The Ontario and Toronto detail is where the story concentrates. CMHC's own economist called out Ontario as the notable drag, and the provincial trend's multi-unit weakness lines up with Toronto's sharp year-over-year drop in August actual starts.

For buyers, more completions in Toronto and Ontario mean more new product arriving into a market that already saw CREA's August national listings rebound. For sellers and listing agents in the GTA, a softer starts trend does not instantly clear competing new supply — especially with Toronto's permitted-but-not-started count still rising. For agents advising condo investors, the multi-unit starts pullback is the cleaner signal than the flat national SAAR headline.

CMHC will release September housing starts data on October 16, 2026 at 8:15 a.m. ET.

Sources

• CMHC — Housing starts and construction data for August 2026 (released September 16, 2026)

Compiled by the Real Estate HQ editorial desk from primary data releases (sources linked above) and reviewed for accuracy. Figures are as reported on the release date.