September New-Home Prices Fall 0.2% Nationally — Toronto Drops 0.9%, Now 4.9% Below Last Year

Statistics Canada released the September 2026 New Housing Price Index on October 22, and the national builder contract-price gauge slipped for another month. The total house-and-land index fell 0.2% month over month to 120.2 (December 2016 = 100) and is 2.0% below September 2025. Ontario fell further: its index dropped 0.5% on the month to 116.9 and is down 3.4% year over year.

For GTA buyers and builders, the main story is Toronto. August's small bounce did not last. The Toronto CMA's total index dropped 0.9% month over month, from 106.0 to 105.0, the lowest reading in the 13 months shown in StatCan's table. It is now 4.9% below September 2025. Toronto's house-only component sits at 101.2, which means the price of the structure itself on a comparable new home is barely above its December 2016 level.

National: a slightly steeper dip, led by Atlantic Canada

The NHPI tracks the selling prices builders and buyers agree on for new single homes, semi-detached homes and townhomes when the contract is signed, excluding GST/HST. Specifications stay the same between consecutive months, so the index measures price, not changes in product mix. It is not seasonally adjusted and is not revised.

Canada's total index moved from 120.4 in August to 120.2 in September (−0.2%), compared with 122.7 a year earlier (−2.0%). House-only fell to 121.4 (−0.2% m/m, −2.6% y/y). Land-only, which StatCan flags as estimated, slipped to 116.3 (−0.1% m/m, −0.9% y/y). The Daily's provincial cards show Newfoundland and Labrador with the largest provincial monthly decline at −1.2%, while Nova Scotia fell 0.2%.

Not every market softened. British Columbia's index rose 0.5% on the month (121.9 to 122.5), with Vancouver up 0.7% (122.6 to 123.4). Quebec was unchanged at 150.0 and is 1.3% higher than a year ago. Quebec and Ontario continue to move in opposite directions on the annual comparison.

Ontario: house and land both down 0.5% on the month

Ontario's total index fell from 117.5 to 116.9 (−0.5%) and is 3.4% below September 2025's 121.0. Unlike August, when the provincial house-only component was flat, both parts fell this time. House-only dropped from 118.0 to 117.4 (−0.5% m/m, −3.9% y/y), and land-only, an estimate, fell from 116.6 to 116.0 (−0.5% m/m, −2.0% y/y).

The Ontario CMAs split clearly between the GTA-and-Golden-Horseshoe belt and everywhere else:

• Hamilton 106.4: −1.2% m/m, matching Newfoundland and Labrador's monthly drop, and −4.0% y/y.
• St. Catharines–Niagara 120.7: −0.9% m/m, −2.8% y/y.
• Oshawa 113.0: +0.7% m/m, its first monthly gain in the 13 months shown, but still −4.9% y/y, level with Toronto as the weakest annual result in Ontario.
• Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part) 162.3: +0.7% m/m and +1.0% y/y, moving back into annual gains after August's −0.4%.
• Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo 150.4: unchanged m/m, −2.0% y/y.
• London 136.3 (−0.4% m/m, −1.9% y/y), Guelph 118.8 (−0.1% m/m, −1.6% y/y) and Windsor 144.0 (−0.3% m/m, −0.5% y/y) all eased slightly.
• Greater Sudbury 118.4: unchanged m/m and +2.5% y/y, the only Ontario CMA other than Ottawa that is higher than a year ago.

Toronto: the August bounce reverses

Toronto's total index gave back more than August's 0.2% gain, falling from 106.0 to 105.0. The decline was broad. House-only fell from 102.2 to 101.2 (−1.0% m/m, −6.0% y/y), and the estimated land-only series fell from 113.4 to 112.3 (−1.0% m/m, −2.5% y/y). A year ago, Toronto's total index was 110.4, house-only was 107.7 and land was 115.2.

Our read is that builders in the Toronto CMA are still cutting contract prices rather than holding them. August looked like a possible floor, but September does not confirm it. The annual decline in house-only prices (−6.0%) is more than twice the decline for land (−2.5%). That suggests most of the adjustment is coming from what builders charge for the structure, not from cheaper land. It also fits alongside the weak Ontario construction data we covered in August's building-investment release, although that release measured multi-unit spending rather than the freehold product the NHPI tracks.

What this means for GTA buyers, sellers and builders

The NHPI is not a resale price measure. It covers contract prices for comparable new freehold homes and towns, not condos and not MLS® sales. Within that segment, September shifts bargaining power further toward buyers in Toronto, Hamilton and Niagara. A new-home contract signed this fall is pricing a comparable house about 5% below a year ago in Toronto. Buyers have good reason to push on base price and inclusions rather than assume the market has bottomed.

For builders, the split inside Ontario is the useful signal. Ottawa and Sudbury are posting annual gains, and Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo held steady on the month. The GTA belt is where pricing pressure is concentrated. Resale sellers competing with new freehold and townhome product in Toronto, Durham, Hamilton and Niagara should price against builder contracts that are still getting cheaper. Oshawa's 0.7% monthly uptick is one data point, not a turn, while its index remains about 5% below last year.

Next NHPI release: October 2026 data on November 18, 2026.

Sources

• Statistics Canada — The Daily: New Housing Price Index, September 2026 (released October 22, 2026)
• Statistics Canada — Table 18-10-0205-01: New housing price index, monthly

Compiled by the Real Estate HQ editorial desk from primary data releases (sources linked above) and reviewed for accuracy. Month-over-month and year-over-year percentage changes are calculated from index levels in Table 18-10-0205-01 and match the Daily release cards for Canada, Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia. Land-only values are flagged by StatCan as estimates. Figures are as reported on the release date.