Toronto Housing Starts Fall 61% in September as Condo Starts Dry Up — Completions Double, and CREA Shows Ontario Prices Slipping

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's September housing-starts numbers, released October 16, look calm at the national level and rough in the GTA. Nationally, the six-month trend was essentially flat at 250,411 units (+0.6%). In the Toronto census metropolitan area, builders broke ground on just 1,440 homes in September, down 61% from 3,678 in September 2025.

The drop is almost entirely condos and other multi-unit buildings. Toronto multi-unit starts fell to 1,204 from 3,317 (−64%), while single-detached starts slipped to 236 from 361 (−35%). At the same time, Toronto completions roughly doubled on the month to 4,766 units, as projects launched in earlier years kept finishing.

The Canadian Real Estate Association published its September resale numbers the same morning, and they point the same direction: national sales down 2.3% month-over-month and the benchmark price down 0.4%, with CREA singling out a fresh step down in Ontario.

The national headline numbers (CMHC)

• Six-month trend, all areas: 250,411 units (+0.6% from August)
• Monthly SAAR, all areas: 248,896 units, up 3% from 242,223 in August (the August figure in this release; CMHC first reported 229,046 in September)
• Actual starts, centres 10,000+: 19,984 units, down 11% from 22,375 in September 2025
• Year-to-date actual starts, centres 10,000+: 170,964 units (January–September), down 4% from 2025
• Rural starts SAAR: 18,094 units
• Under construction, centres 50,000+: 371,617 units, flat month-over-month
• Completions, centres 50,000+: 17,398 units (−0.9%)
• Approved units not yet started, centres 50,000+: 143,929 (+1.1%)

Among the three biggest metros, CMHC says Montreal's trend fell 8% on lower multi-unit starts, Vancouver's rose 6% on higher multi-unit starts, and Toronto's was flat because single-detached and multi-unit trends offset each other.

Toronto CMA: a weak month inside a weak year

The six-month trend smooths out lumpy condo launches, and on that measure Toronto barely moved: 24,837 units in September versus 25,125 in August. The single-detached trend ticked up to 2,657 (+2%) and the multi-unit trend eased to 22,180 (−2%).

The actual counts are where the slowdown shows:

• September 2026 actual starts: 1,440 (September 2025: 3,678), −61%
• Multi-unit: 1,204 (3,317), −64%
• Single-detached: 236 (361), −35%
• Year-to-date, January–September: 17,397 (20,129), −14%
• Year-to-date multi-unit: 15,586 (17,724), −12%
• Year-to-date single-detached: 1,811 (2,405), −25%

The construction pipeline is shrinking from both ends. Units under construction in the Toronto CMA fell 3.8% to 88,108 from 91,584 in August, as completions jumped 101.8% to 4,766 from 2,362. Approved units waiting to start were flat at 19,526 (+0.1%). In plain terms, more homes are finishing than starting, and the backlog of permitted-but-unstarted projects isn't growing.

Ontario and nearby GTA-area metros

Ontario's actual starts in centres of 10,000+ fell to 4,054 from 7,465 (−46%). Multi-unit starts were down 55% to 2,994, while single-detached starts rose 22% to 1,060. Year to date, Ontario is at 43,994 starts, down 5% from 46,111. The provincial trend eased 2% to 58,120. Ontario's under-construction count slipped 2.5% to 145,608, while approved-but-unstarted units rose 7.6% to 34,448.

Nearby CMAs, September 2026 actual starts versus September 2025, with year-to-date totals:

• Oshawa: 76 (99), −23%; year to date 571 (785), −27%
• Hamilton: 72 (27), +167%; year to date 1,253 (2,065), −39%
• Barrie: 27 (36), −25%; year to date 691 (628), +10%
• Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo: 112 (1,259), −91%; year to date 2,934 (3,525), −17%

Small metros swing hard on a single building, so the year-to-date columns are the better read. Of these four, only Barrie is ahead of 2025's pace.

CMHC's warning

"As outlined in CMHC's latest Housing Supply Report (HSR), a key risk for Canada now is not building enough during this period of softening housing markets across the country. Of Canada's four most populous provinces, only Quebec has seen modest gains in housing starts for 2026 and each of the seven major centres covered in the HSR are behind 2025's pace for new home construction. Canada still faces a long-term housing supply gap and unless housing construction levels increase, improvements in housing affordability since 2023 will be difficult to sustain."

— Aled ab Iorwerth, Deputy Chief Economist, CMHC

The resale side: CREA's September numbers

CREA's October 16 release covers national MLS® activity for September 2026:

• Home sales: −2.3% month-over-month; actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity 7.7% below September 2025
• New listings: −1.8% month-over-month
• MLS® Home Price Index: −0.4% month-over-month, −3.4% year-over-year
• National average sale price: $666,538, down 1.6% year-over-year
• Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 48.8% (August: 49.1%; long-term average 54.7%)
• Inventory: slightly more than 200,000 properties listed at month-end (+1.8% year-over-year), 4.9 months of inventory

CREA says the monthly price decline, after four months of stable prices, "reflected a fresh step down for prices in Ontario where demand softened in September." CREA's Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart tied the pullback to "the latest jump in fixed mortgage rates" and to expectations that the Bank of Canada will raise its rate before year-end. The year-over-year HPI decline grew for the first time since January.

What it means for GTA buyers, sellers and agents

Housing starts are the front end of future supply. A 61% year-over-year drop in Toronto starts in one month doesn't change what's for sale today, and the six-month trend says the slowdown is steady rather than sudden. But the year-to-date numbers are clear: Toronto is 14% behind last year, multi-unit starts are doing most of the falling, and more units are finishing than starting. If that holds, the current wave of completions, which is part of why GTA condo buyers and renters have had more choice, will thin out in the years after these buildings deliver.

On resale, CREA's numbers describe a market that stepped back in September rather than one that broke. A national sales-to-new-listings ratio of 48.8% and 4.9 months of inventory are still within CREA's balanced range, but Ontario is where prices are softening. For buyers, that usually means more room to negotiate this fall. For sellers, CREA's own advice is a careful pricing strategy. The next read on the Bank of Canada is its October 28 rate announcement.

CMHC will release October housing starts on November 17 at 8:15 a.m. ET. CREA's next statistics package is also scheduled for Tuesday, November 17.

Sources

• CMHC — Housing starts and construction data for September 2026 (released October 16, 2026), including provincial and CMA tables for trend, actual, year-to-date, under-construction, completion and approved-unstarted counts
• CREA Statistics — October 16, 2026 news release (September 2026 data)
• CMHC Reports Calendar