Bank of Canada Decides Wednesday With the Rate at 2.25%: What GTA Variable-Rate Borrowers, Renewers and Buyers Should Watch

The Bank of Canada makes its next scheduled interest rate announcement on Wednesday, October 28, at 9:45 a.m. ET, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers hold a press conference at about 10:30 a.m. ET. The policy rate going in is 2.25%. The Bank has held it there at seven straight decisions since its last cut on October 29, 2025.

We're not going to guess at the outcome or put odds on it. What follows is what the Bank has said, what the data since its September 2 hold show, and what each part of Wednesday's release means for GTA borrowers with a variable rate, a renewal coming up, or a purchase in progress.

Where things stand going in

• Policy rate: 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.5%, deposit rate 2.20%), unchanged since October 29, 2025
• Chartered bank prime rate: 4.45% in the Bank of Canada's weekly series for October 21, unchanged since November 2025, when it fell from 4.70%
• 5-year Government of Canada benchmark bond yield: 3.56% on October 23, up from 3.42% on the day of the September 2 decision and about 2.66% a year earlier
• Posted 5-year conventional mortgage rate (chartered banks): 6.19% since the October 7 weekly reading, up from 6.09% through September. The posted 1-year rate is 5.49% and the 3-year is 6.05%.
• September CPI: 3.1% year over year nationally and 2.5% in Ontario

What the Bank said last time

On September 2, the Bank held at 2.25% and said the economy and inflation were "evolving broadly as forecast in the July MPR." The rest of the statement leaned toward risk. Governing Council said "the upside risks to inflation have increased, while new tariffs make growth prospects more uncertain," and that it "is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed." It pointed to the continuing Middle East conflict keeping energy prices high, and to new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures after Canada–US trade talks broke down. It also noted that second-quarter GDP grew 3.3% with "some rebound in housing activity."

The Bank's main test was whether high gasoline prices were spreading into everything else. In September it said there had been "little evidence" of that so far, and warned that "the longer that high oil prices and elevated refinery margins persist, the greater the risk of spillover."

What the data have shown since

Inflation: high headline, soft core. Statistics Canada's September CPI, the last reading before Wednesday, rose 3.1% year over year, up from 3.0%, as gasoline jumped 27.8%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.2%, down from 2.4% in August. The Bank's preferred core measures eased: CPI-trim was 1.8%, CPI-median 1.9% and CPI-common 2.4%. Ontario's all-items CPI was 2.5%. Shelter rose 1.8%, rent 2.8%, and the mortgage interest cost index was 0.2% lower than a year earlier. Taken alone, the September numbers do not show energy spreading into core prices.

Expectations: moving the wrong way. The Bank's own third-quarter surveys, released October 19, are less comfortable. In the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, consumers' long-term inflation expectations "rose to match elevated shorter-term expectations." Expectations at every horizon were higher among people who answered after trade talks broke down on August 21. About half of consumers still expect a recession in the next 12 months. In the Business Outlook Survey, roughly half of firms said they plan to pass some or all of their war- and tariff-related cost increases on to customers. Firms' one-year-ahead inflation expectations "rose again in September" after the talks collapsed and oil prices climbed. The same survey found the share of firms planning for a Canadian recession fell from 17% to 6%. For firms tied to housing, the Bank said sales outlooks "remain weak but have improved somewhat," reflecting "signs that demand is stabilizing after a period of softening, not a recovery."

GTA housing: soft and waiting. TRREB reported 5,040 GTA home sales in September, down 9% from a year earlier. New listings fell 14.4% to 16,500. The MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.7% year over year, and the average selling price was $1,006,409, down 5.1%. Condo apartments averaged $605,257, down 7.7%. TRREB said buyers were "in a holding pattern" amid uncertainty about the economy, inflation and borrowing costs. On the supply side, CMHC counted 1,440 actual housing starts in the Toronto CMA in September, down 61% from 3,678 a year earlier. Year-to-date starts are down 14%.

What it means for variable-rate borrowers

Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs are priced off lenders' prime rates, which track the Bank's policy rate. Prime has been 4.45% since November 2025. If the Bank holds on Wednesday, prime and variable-rate payments stay where they are. If it moves, lenders usually adjust prime within a day, and variable-rate payments or amortizations change from there. Beyond the decision itself, the useful signal for variable-rate holders is the tone. The September statement described the Bank as ready to move in either direction. On Wednesday, watch whether it repeats that or tilts one way.

What it means for renewals and new fixed-rate buyers

Fixed mortgage rates follow Government of Canada bond yields more closely than the overnight rate, and those yields have already moved. The 5-year benchmark yield climbed from 3.42% on September 2 to as high as 3.69% in late September. It was 3.56% on October 23, about 0.9 percentage points above a year earlier. The Bank's own consumer survey noted that its respondents were interviewed "before the surge in bond yields in September 2026." Chartered banks' posted 5-year rate rose to 6.19% in October.

That matters for GTA owners renewing this fall and next year. The posted 5-year rate in October 2021, when many current five-year terms were signed, was 4.79%. Posted rates are benchmarks, and most borrowers pay less after discounts, but the gap between then and now is the renewal payment shock in one number. A decision that holds the policy rate won't by itself lower fixed rates. What happens to bond yields after the MPR is published will matter more.

For buyers, TRREB's September numbers show prices and competition easing. Sales and listings are both down, and benchmark prices are about 5% lower than a year ago. Higher fixed rates are offsetting some of that relief. Anyone with a rate hold or a pre-approval should check its expiry date and the rate it locks in.

What to watch on Wednesday

• The decision and the bias. Does the Bank keep "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed," or does it lean in one direction?
• The MPR inflation projection. Does the Bank still expect inflation to ease toward 2%, as it did in July, and how long does it assume oil prices stay high?
• Spillover language. September's core measures eased, but business and consumer inflation expectations rose. Watch how the Bank weighs the two.
• Tariffs and growth. How much damage does the MPR attribute to the new US tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs, and does it see the second-quarter rebound in housing activity lasting?
• The bond market's reaction. For anyone fixing a rate in the next few weeks, the 5-year yield after 9:45 a.m. matters more than the policy rate itself.

After Wednesday, Statistics Canada publishes its third-quarter building construction price indexes on October 29 and the third-quarter New Condo Apartment Price Index on November 3. TRREB's October Market Watch is due in early November, and October CPI follows on November 16. The Bank's final scheduled decision of 2026 is on December 9.

Sources

• Bank of Canada: Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼%, September 2, 2026
• Bank of Canada: Policy interest rate (decision history and 2026 schedule)
• Bank of Canada: Upcoming events, Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report, October 28, 2026, 9:45 ET
• Bank of Canada: Business Outlook Survey, Third Quarter of 2026 (October 19, 2026)
• Bank of Canada: Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, Third Quarter of 2026 (October 19, 2026)
• Bank of Canada: Consumer price index and preferred core measures
• Bank of Canada Valet: 5-year benchmark bond yield (BD.CDN.5YR.DQ.YLD), plus weekly series prime rate (V80691311) and 5-year conventional mortgage rate (V80691335), with 1-year (V80691333) and 3-year (V80691334)
• Statistics Canada: The Daily, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (October 19, 2026), including Table 2 (provinces)
• Toronto Regional Real Estate Board: GTA REALTORS® Release September 2026 Stats and Market Watch, September 2026 (PDF)
• CMHC: Housing starts and construction data for September 2026 (October 16, 2026)

Compiled by the Real Estate HQ editorial desk from primary sources (linked above) and reviewed for accuracy. This is a preview of what to watch, not a forecast of the decision. Bond yields and mortgage rates are the latest Bank of Canada observations available on October 27, 2026. Posted rates are chartered-bank benchmarks, not the discounted rates most borrowers pay.