GTHA New Condo Sales Double to 760 in Q3 as Bulk Investors Buy Finished Units — Pre-Construction Falls 61%, Urbanation Says

Urbanation's Q3-2026 Condominium Market Survey, released October 19, shows new condo sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) doubling from a year earlier to 760 units. That's the second straight quarterly gain, and it lifts the market off the 35-year lows it hit at the start of 2026.

The recovery has a specific shape, though. Almost all of it is happening in buildings that are already finished. Investment groups bought 339 units in bulk deals, 45% of all new condo sales in the quarter, and sales at completed buildings hit a record 648 units, or 85% of the total. Pre-construction sales fell 61% from a year ago to just 60 units.

Even after doubling, Q3 sales were still 78% below the 10-year average for a third quarter. Sales over the past two quarters totalled 1,531 units, roughly equal to the 1,578 sold in all of 2025.

The new condo numbers (Q3-2026)

• New condo apartment sales: 760 units, double the year-earlier quarter
• Bulk purchases by investment groups: 339 units, 45% of sales
• Sales at completed buildings: 648 units, a record, and a record 85% share
• Pre-construction sales: 60 units, down 61% year-over-year and the 12th straight quarter of annual declines
• Completed and unsold inventory: 5,127 units, down 7% from a record 5,485 in Q2, the first quarterly decline in four years, but still 40% higher than a year ago and four times the 1,279 units of two years ago
• Average asking price, completed and unsold units: $1,157 per square foot, down 4% year-over-year and 20% below the Q2-2023 peak of $1,446 psf
• Average price of units sold in Q3 (excluding bulk and luxury): $1,045 psf
• Average bulk sale price: $763 psf, an average 40% discount to the original selling prices in the same buildings

Why pre-construction is stuck

Urbanation points to a timing problem in Ontario's enhanced HST rebate. Units bought as rentals have to be substantially completed by December 31, 2029, two years earlier than units bought by owner-occupiers. Most new high-rise projects take four to five years to build, so they can't meet that deadline. In Urbanation's words, that "effectively excludes pre-construction investors from the enhanced HST rebate."

That helps explain the split. Investors who want the rebate are buying finished units, often in bulk and at steep discounts, while the pre-construction market that used to drive GTHA condo sales has gone quiet.

Resale condos: a smaller price drop

On the resale side, Urbanation counted 3,843 condo sales in Q3, down 6% year-over-year. Active listings fell 11% to 7,020, and the average price slipped 5.7% to $724 psf, the smallest annual decline in six quarters.

Where you are in the region matters a lot:

• Former City of Toronto: average resale price down 2.8% to $905 psf
• Outer 416: down 7.9%
• 905 region: down 9.3%

The former City of Toronto also had the fewest new condo completions of any region over the past 12 months, 6,884 units, down 30% from a year earlier. Less new supply landing downtown is one reason core prices have held up better.

The supply pipeline is drying up

• Q3 construction starts: 381 units, all in a single project
• Starts, first three quarters of 2026: 2,696 units, 82% below the 10-year average for the same period
• Q3 completions: 2,578 units, the lowest quarterly total since Q4-2019
• Year-to-date completions: 17,051 units, down 17% from a record 20,506 in the first three quarters of 2025
• Units under construction: 35,920, down 38% year-over-year, the lowest since early 2012 and 66% below the 2023 peak of 104,796; 7,685 of them remain unsold

Urbanation's scheduled completions show how fast the pipeline thins out:

• Q4-2026: 3,817 units, bringing full-year 2026 to 20,868 (2025: 29,077)
• 2027: 15,825 units
• 2028: 12,065 units
• 2029: 4,213 units

"Two straight quarters of higher sales show that buyers will step in at the right price. Bulk investors are acquiring completed units at heavily discounted prices, which is helping to manage standing inventory. But with the pre-construction market remaining dormant and construction starts at historic lows, the supply pipeline is drying up, setting the market up for a significant shortage by the end of the decade."

— Shaun Hildebrand, President, Urbanation

This lines up with CMHC's September housing-starts data, which showed Toronto CMA multi-unit starts down 64% year-over-year (see our September starts coverage).

What it means for GTA buyers, sellers and agents

For buyers, the near term still favours you. There are more than 5,000 finished, unsold new condos in the GTHA, asking prices are 20% below the 2023 peak, and resale listings are plentiful outside the core. The fact that bulk buyers are getting roughly 40% off original prices tells you how much room there is in some buildings, even if an individual buyer won't get a bulk discount.

For sellers of resale condos, the gap between the core and the suburbs is the story. Downtown units are holding value much better than those in the outer 416 and 905, where new supply has been heavier and price declines are roughly three times as deep.

The longer-term picture runs the other way. Scheduled completions drop from 20,868 this year to 4,213 in 2029, and starts are at historic lows. Once today's inventory is absorbed, there's very little new supply behind it. That's the shortage Urbanation is warning about, and it's worth keeping in mind for anyone deciding whether to buy now or wait several years.

Next on the calendar: the Bank of Canada's rate announcement on October 28, followed by TRREB's October market numbers next month.

Sources

• Urbanation — GTHA New Condo Sales Double from a Year Ago in Q3 (Q3-2026 Condominium Market Survey, released October 19, 2026)
• CMHC — Housing starts and construction data for September 2026 (released October 16, 2026)