This Week in GTA Real Estate: Longer Selling Times, TD's Softer Outlook, and Soft September Condos

This week brought no fresh Tier-A package for the GTA tape: TRREB's September Market Watch is still outstanding, CREA's September national numbers are due mid-month, CMHC starts land around October 16, and StatCan building permits and September CPI follow later in October. The Bank of Canada also sits quiet until October 28. By Friday the street debate had shifted to how long listings are sitting, how higher government bond yields are weighing on fixed-rate demand, and what September's soft Toronto condo print says about inventory. Here is the week's notable reporting, and where we land.

1. BlogTO / Wahi: GTA homes are taking longer to sell

Kimia Afshar Mehrabi, for BlogTO, summarizes a Wahi analysis tracking average days on market by property type across the GTA through the second quarter of 2026. Condos averaged 36 days in Q2 2026 (up from 32 in Q2 2025; under two weeks at the early-2022 peak). Detached homes averaged 25 days (vs 23 a year earlier; 9 at the Q1 2022 peak). Semis rose to 20 days from 18. Townhouses were the most resilient at about 24 days. Wahi economist Ryan McLaughlin ties the slowdown to an investor exodus, federal immigration cuts, the trade war, and near-historic inventory — especially on the condo side.

Our take: elongated DOM is the negotiation map agents already feel. Condos still carry the heaviest time-on-market penalty; townhouses remain the relative bright spot for downsizers and first-time buyers priced out of detached. Pair this with TRREB's still-current August Market Watch (sales and new listings both down year over year): thinner choice can coexist with longer sits when buyers stay selective and inventory stays elevated.

2. Canadian Mortgage Trends: TD downgrades the housing outlook

Steve Huebl, for Canadian Mortgage Trends on October 1, reports TD Economics cutting its near-term housing forecast. The bank now expects national home sales to decline about 5% in 2026, with average prices roughly flat this year before rising by less than 2% in 2027. The driver is a higher bond-yield path: TD now forecasts the 5-year Government of Canada yield to average 3.60% in Q3 and 3.50% in Q4 (up from 3.00% / 2.95% in its June forecast), easing only gradually toward 3.05% by Q4 2027. The outlook assumes the Bank of Canada holds through 2027. Ontario and B.C. price gains are pegged at under 1% next year; Alberta is expected around 3%.

Our take: this is a fixed-rate story more than an overnight-rate story. Even if the BoC sits, elevated 5-year GoC yields keep renewal and purchase costs sticky — especially in Ontario, where TD sees only sub-1% price growth next year. Treat "hold through 2027" and "bond yields still above 3%" as the same affordability constraint for GTA buyers shopping five-year fixed products.

3. The Globe and Mail: GDP malaise, hike odds, and fixed-rate pressure

Salmaan Farooqui, in The Globe and Mail (published around October 1), frames the housing slowdown against a soft growth outlook. Capital Economics' Bradley Saunders expects GDP growth of about 1.5% next year on tariffs and lower immigration, and only two Bank of Canada hikes in 2027 to 2.75%. Bloomberg swap markets, by contrast, price four hikes to 3.25% by mid-2027. Farooqui notes 5-year bond yields have been trading around 3.6–3.7% for more than a week — the same upside that fed TD's sales and valuation downgrade.

Our take: markets and economists disagree on how far the overnight rate climbs in 2027, but they agree fixed mortgage costs have already moved. For GTA buyers and renewers, the actionable signal is the 3.6–3.7% five-year GoC range, not the mid-2027 hike count. Variable holders get optionality if Saunders is right; fixed shoppers should budget for bond-yield stickiness either way.

4. CondoGo: soft September Toronto condo tape

CondoGo Data, reviewed by Scott Miralami and published October 1, reports 885 Toronto condo sales in September 2026 at a median of $555,000 (−1.8% month over month, −11.2% year over year). Median price per square foot was $728 (−8.3% YoY). Median days on market: 27. Average sale-to-list: 97.2%. Active listings sat at 19,675 (median ask $599,000), implying roughly 22.2 months of inventory. On the rental side, 4,047 leases closed at a median $2,500/month (flat vs August), with a median 12 days to lease.

Our take: September's condo print matches the Wahi DOM story at the city level — buyers have selection, sellers are conceding about 2.8% off ask on the CondoGo cut, and leases still clear far faster than sales. For investors, $2,500 median rent against a $555K median purchase price is the yield frame; for owner-occupiers, the 22-month inventory overhang is the negotiating lever until absorption improves.

Further reading

Context that still matters from prior REHQ coverage: last Friday's Industry Insights roundup, Urbanation / Rentals.ca tariff rental analysis, and CREA August national sales. Primary Tier-A calendars to watch next: TRREB September Market Watch (early October), CREA September mid-month, CMHC starts around October 16, and StatCan building permits / CPI later in the month. Figures above are drawn from the linked reporting — we do not invent numbers.

Sources

• Kimia Afshar Mehrabi, BlogTO (Wahi days-on-market analysis), ~October 1, 2026.
• Steve Huebl, Canadian Mortgage Trends, October 1, 2026.
• Salmaan Farooqui, The Globe and Mail, ~October 1, 2026.
• CondoGo Data / Scott Miralami, Toronto Condo Market Report — September 2026, October 1, 2026.

Compiled by the Real Estate HQ editorial desk. Figures cited from primary sources are reported as of their release date. Linked articles are the work of their respective authors and publications; commentary is our own.