This Week in GTA Real Estate: Below-Asking Sales, October Hike Odds, and a Split New-Home Tape

This week the primary tape was already on the record from earlier in September: CREA's soft August national sales, CMHC's Ontario starts slide, StatCan's soft NHPI with a small Toronto bounce, and Urbanation's tariffs-and-rents analysis we published Tuesday. By Friday the debate had moved to how much negotiation room sellers still face, how hard October rate-hike pricing is biting fixed mortgages, and why the new-home and resale tapes still look like two markets. Here is the week's notable reporting, and where we land.

1. REMI Network / HouseSigma: four in five August GTA sales closed below asking

REMI Network, on September 24, reports HouseSigma data showing 79.3% of qualifying August GTA sales closed below the seller's final ask, 17.7% above, and 3.0% at list. The median discount was about 2.97% (roughly $24,000). Detached and condo apartments both sat near a 3.2% median discount; attached homes were closer to 2.21%. Condos posted the steepest price pressure in that cut of the data, with a median around $530,000, down about 6.77% year over year in the HouseSigma series.

Our take: this is the negotiation map agents already feel on the ground. Treat the 79.3% headline as a starting point, not a promise — Ajax and Markham were far more competitive in the same dataset, while outer municipalities conceded more. Pair it with TRREB's August Market Watch we already covered (sales and listings both down year over year): less choice can coexist with deep discounts when buyers stay selective.

2. The Globe and Mail: a tale of two Toronto markets

Carolyn Ireland, in The Globe and Mail on September 23, walks through east-end and midtown deals where well-located, move-in-ready homes still drew multiple offers — including a Leslieville/Beaches pocket sale that agents compared to an old-school offer night — while dated or overpriced listings sat. RBC economist Rachel Battaglia is quoted tying August's national sales pullback to an escalation in trade tensions that rattled buyers and coaxed more listings.

Our take: this is the cleanest week-to-street bridge from the HouseSigma discount print. The GTA is not uniformly "buyer market forever"; it is bifurcated by location, condition, and pricing honesty. Agents should still stress-test asking strategies against trade and rate headlines rather than last cycle's playbook.

3. Financial Post: markets ~60% on an October Bank of Canada hike

Gigi Suhanic, for the Financial Post on September 24, cites National Bank strategist Ethan Currie on overnight-index-swap pricing: roughly a 60% chance of a hike at the October 28 decision (up from about 30% at the start of September, though off a monthly high near 75%), with December previously described as fully priced for a hike in that note. Governor Tiff Macklem continues to insist Canada can run policy on domestic data.

Our take: keep the OIS path separate from the overnight rate we already have. The Bank is still at 2.25% after the September hold, and August CPI held at 3.0% in our Market News. The nearer-term hit for GTA buyers remains fixed-rate mortgage pressure via bond yields — the hike is a priced scenario into late October, not a locked base case.

4. BILD / Altus: August new-home sales split hard by product type

BILD, via Altus Group data released September 22, reports 907 GTA new-home sales in August — still 37% below the 10-year August average, but with 692 single-family sales (47% above that long-run average) and only 215 condo apartment sales (78% below average). Remaining inventory sat near 19,030 units. BILD credits Ontario's HST rebate for low-rise momentum and flags condo timing rules as the drag.

Our take: put this next to the soft condo resale discounts above. Policy is clearly moving the low-rise new-home needle; the high-rise and resale condo channels are still the soft spot for agent conversations about investor demand and assignment risk.

5. STOREYS: small-scale infill finally shows in Toronto starts

Zakiya Kassam, for STOREYS on September 24, relays a CMHC analysis that accessory dwellings and two-to-eight-unit buildings accounted for 6.45% of Toronto housing starts last year — up more than tenfold from 0.62% in 2023 — even as Ontario's overall starts stayed weak. Vancouver and Edmonton posted much higher infill shares over the same window.

Our take: this is the quiet supply story under the soft high-rise tape. Multiplex and gentle-density reforms are showing up in the starts mix, which matters for neighbourhood guides and for agents advising landowners in as-of-right multiplex wards — even if it cannot replace the volume lost when condo launches stall.

6. Rentals.ca / Urbanation: tariffs as the next rent pressure

Rentals.ca and Urbanation, on September 22, argue asking rents are already down nationally while the bigger tariff shock to jobs and high-rise build costs still lies ahead — with Toronto and Vancouver most exposed on the supply side. We covered the primary release in Tuesday's Market News.

Our take: for Friday readers, treat softer near-term rents and a delayed supply trough as two clocks. The same trade shock that is bruising buyer confidence on MLS is also the one Urbanation says could shelve purpose-built starts that would have delivered later this decade.

Further reading

Primary pieces we published earlier this stretch: Urbanation tariffs analysis, July building investment, August NHPI, and CREA August national statistics. Figures above are drawn from those releases or from the linked reporting — we do not invent numbers.

Sources

• REMI Network / HouseSigma, Four in five GTA homes sold below asking in August, September 24, 2026.
• Carolyn Ireland, The Globe and Mail, September 23, 2026.
• Gigi Suhanic, Financial Post, September 24, 2026.
• BILD / Altus Group, New home sales in the GTA continue their positive momentum throughout August, September 22, 2026.
• Zakiya Kassam, STOREYS, September 24, 2026.
• Rentals.ca / Urbanation, Tariffs Emerge as New Pressure on Canada's Rental Market, September 22, 2026.

Compiled by the Real Estate HQ editorial desk. Figures cited from primary sources are reported as of their release date. Linked articles are the work of their respective authors and publications; commentary is our own.