GTA September 2026: Sales Fall 9% as Buyers Wait — Benchmark Price Down 4.7%

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's September 2026 Market Watch, released October 6, describes a market waiting for a reason to move. Buyers held off, sellers held off even more, and prices kept drifting lower. The fall market usually picks up after Labour Day. This year it barely did.

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,040 home sales through TRREB's MLS® System in September 2026, down 9.0% from 5,540 in September 2025. New listings came in at 16,500, down 14.4% from 19,270. On a seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings fell from August.

The headline numbers

• Sales: 5,040 (−9.0% vs September 2025)
• New listings: 16,500 (−14.4% YoY)
• Active listings: 26,131 (−9.3% from 28,813)
• Average selling price: $1,006,409 (−5.1% from $1,060,036)
• MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: $917,600 (−4.65% YoY)
• Median price: $860,000
• Average sold-to-list ratio: 98%
• Average days on market (listing): 34, versus 33 a year ago
• Months of inventory (trend): 4.6

The average price is back above $1 million after August's $993,410, but that is a raw monthly number, not a recovery. TRREB says that on a seasonally adjusted basis both the HPI Composite and the average price edged lower from August. Against last year, our arithmetic on TRREB's figures puts the composite benchmark roughly $45,000 below September 2025, and the average sale about $53,600 lower.

Supply fell faster than demand again

For the second month in a row, listings fell harder than sales. The GTA lost 500 sales year-over-year and 2,770 new listings, about 5.5 fewer listings for every sale that didn't happen. Active inventory is down 9.3% from a year ago.

That matters because it explains why prices are sliding slowly rather than falling hard. Plenty of owners who might sell in a weaker market are simply not listing. TRREB's trend sales-to-new-listings ratio sits at 37.8% across the board area, and months of inventory at 4.6. That is balanced-to-soft territory: buyers have choice and time, but they are not getting fire-sale prices. The average home still sold at 98% of its asking price.

Where the weakness is concentrated

The 905 suburbs took a bigger hit than the City of Toronto. Detached sales fell 4.0% year-over-year in the 416 but 10.3% in the 905. Condo apartment sales were down 5.5% in Toronto and 12.4% in the surrounding regions, and the 905 condo average price was down 12.0%.

On the benchmark side, York Region is the soft spot. Its HPI Composite is down 6.50% year-over-year to $1,080,400, compared with −3.84% for the City of Toronto ($908,200) and −3.38% for Halton ($953,100). York's apartment benchmark is down 8.79%.

The tightest pockets are in the east. Durham Region showed 3.5 months of inventory (trend), with Whitby at 2.9 and Ajax at 3.0. Toronto East homes sold at an average of 101% of asking. At the other end, King Township showed 11.4 months of inventory and Georgina 6.5.

Markham snapshot

Markham recorded 245 sales at an average of $1,125,353 and a median of $1,051,000, with 729 new listings and 4.1 months of inventory (trend). Its HPI Composite benchmark is $1,052,500, down 6.02% year-over-year. That is steeper than the GTA-wide decline, and Markham's apartment benchmark is down 9.70% to $517,200. Detached homes in Markham averaged $1,534,139 across 108 sales.

Semis are the one segment still holding its ground

Semi-detached homes stand out. Across the board area, semis sold at an average of 102% of list price, and in the City of Toronto at 104%. The 416 semi-detached average price was up 2.1% year-over-year to $1,207,884. It was the only major home type and region in TRREB's summary table with a price gain. For buyers priced out of detached homes who still want a house, competition for Toronto semis is real.

Condos are the opposite case. Condo apartments made up 26.1% of sales at an average of $605,257, down 7.7%. The GTA apartment HPI benchmark of $527,200 is down 6.67%, the steepest decline of any benchmark type.

What TRREB is saying

TRREB's leadership put the slowdown down to confidence rather than affordability. Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer said there is "substantial pent-up demand in the GTA," but would-be buyers "need to be confident that their employment situation will remain solid and inflation will not put pressure on borrowing costs over the long term."

President Daniel Steinfeld tied the release to the upcoming municipal elections, saying councils' decisions "on affordability, housing supply and the costs associated with buying a home can also influence buyer demand and confidence in the market." CEO John DiMichele called for reducing barriers such as Toronto's Municipal Land Transfer Tax and opposing its expansion across the GTA and Simcoe County.

What it means for you

• Buyers: You have negotiating room on condos and in much of the 905, especially York Region. Don't assume the same for Toronto semis or freeholds in east-end and Durham markets, where homes are still selling at or above asking.
• Sellers: Pricing matters more than timing. With 4.6 months of inventory, a listing priced at last spring's numbers is likely to sit. TRREB's average listing took 34 days to sell.
• Investors: The condo benchmark keeps falling in both the 416 and the 905. Rental demand data, not resale momentum, should drive any purchase case right now.

The next markers are September inflation data from Statistics Canada later this month and the Bank of Canada's rate decision on October 28. Both feed directly into the borrowing-cost worries TRREB says are keeping buyers on the sidelines.

Sources

• Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, GTA REALTORS® Release September 2026 Stats, Market Watch release, October 6, 2026.
• Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Market Watch, September 2026 (PDF): regional, municipal, home-type, and MLS® HPI tables.
• Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Market Watch, August 2026 (PDF): prior-month average price.
• Bank of Canada, Policy Interest Rate (next scheduled decision October 28, 2026).

Compiled by the Real Estate HQ editorial desk from primary data releases (sources linked above) and reviewed for accuracy. Figures are as reported on the release date. Year-over-year dollar differences are our own calculations from TRREB's published figures.